Miami Condo Market Report Q2 2026 | Prices & Inventory

Q2 2026: The High End Pulled Away While the Median Fell

The full Q2 2026 picture is now available, and it is more useful than the June median headline by itself. Corcoran's Miami Beaches and Coastal Mainland report gives the best quarterly read on the high-end coastal market. MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld gives the countywide June read and the first-half luxury thresholds. Keyes/Illustrated adds a regional luxury transaction signal. Different geographies, different cadences, and they are not directly reconcilable, so nothing below mixes them.

Start with the county. Miami-Dade condo sales rose 11.96% year over year in June 2026, to 1,058 closings, while the median condo price fell 3.15%, from $445,000 to $431,000. Both are correct. The tension between them is the most useful thing in the release. A median reports where the middle sale landed. It is not a valuation of any individual apartment, and in Q2 the top of the coastal market strengthened at the same time that lower-priced condo closings pulled the midpoint down.

Why a Falling Median Is Not the Same as a Falling Market

Condo sales in the $300,000 to $600,000 range rose 8.7% year over year in June. Over the same month, Miami-Dade sales above $1 million climbed 29.14%, from 374 to 483, and MIAMI REALTORS chief economist Gay Cororaton put the million-dollar segment up 40% on the year. Those two $1 million figures cover all property types, not condos alone, and the county release does not publish a condo-only figure above $1 million. Read them as evidence of where county-wide demand is concentrated, not as a condo price series.

With that caveat, the pattern is clear enough. The entry tier came back to life, the top kept accelerating, and the midpoint between them moved down. The data is most consistent with a change in what sold rather than a change in what apartments are worth. Anyone reading the headline median as a Miami price decline is reading a composition shift as a valuation shift.

The Honest Counterargument

A composition story can be told too neatly, so here is the case against it. Miami-Dade condos carry 12.3 months of supply. Median time from listing to contract stretched to 85 days in June from 68 a year earlier, and time to completed sale to 124 days from 107. Sellers received 94% of original list price. None of that is a composition artifact. Those are direct measurements of demand pressure inside the condo stock, and they say some real number of individual units, most likely older, non-waterfront, non-Beaches inventory carrying assessments, is trading below where it would have traded a year ago.

Both things are true at once. The county median is falling mainly for compositional reasons, and a specific slice of the condo stock is genuinely softer. The useful question is never whether Miami condos went up or down. It is which slice you are standing in.

Two Coastlines, Two Different Markets

Corcoran's Q2 2026 report splits South Florida into the Beaches and the coastal mainland, and that is the most useful cut of this market anyone publishes. Both sides posted a fourth consecutive quarterly rise in condo closings. Only one of them saw its average price go up.

It is also why the barrier islands keep behaving more like a land market than a housing market. Supply on the Beaches contracted 17% in a year and cannot be manufactured. The oceanfront and bayfront enclaves, Bal Harbour, Surfside, South of Fifth, and the guard-gated islands covered in our Indian Creek, Star Island and La Gorce comparison, are competing for a fixed number of sites. On the mainland, Brickell, Edgewater and Downtown can still add floors.

That supply asymmetry is the mechanism behind the two-speed market, and the branded pipeline sits on top of it. Miami now ranks second only to Dubai in the global pipeline of branded residences, according to Savills, and international buyers accounted for 49% of new South Florida construction, pre-construction and condo-conversion sales over the 18 months ending July 2025. That buyer is typically paying cash, buying a building rather than a comp, and is largely indifferent to the mortgage conditions that govern the tier below. Towers like Aston Martin Residences, Cipriani Residences Brickell, the Waldorf Astoria and 619 Brickell are absorbing on their own math, which is exactly why the top can accelerate in a quarter when the median falls.

The 12.3-Month Problem

One number should frame every Miami condo decision this year. Miami-Dade condominiums carry 12.3 months of supply. Single-family homes in the same county carry 4.9. A balanced market sits between six and nine. So within one county, at the same moment, condos are a buyer's market and houses are a seller's market, and the gap between them is wider than either is from balance.

The direction matters as much as the level. Five straight months of declining condo inventory is the first sustained drawdown in three years. At 12.3 months a disciplined buyer still has room to negotiate, particularly in older mid-tier stock. Whether that room persists depends on whether the drawdown survives a seasonally softer second half against continuing new-construction deliveries, which is a genuinely open question rather than a forecast we are prepared to make.

The Financing Gate Behind the Headline Numbers

This part of the Miami condo market gets almost no coverage, and in our view it is the constraint that actually decides who can close. Of the 2,397 condominium buildings across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, 21 are approved for FHA loans. That is 0.9%. HUD publishes the list. MIAMI REALTORS states that this shortage of FHA-approved buildings is preventing further market strengthening.

A second change arrives on August 3, 2026, when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminate the limited review option for many condo loans. Limited review is the shortcut that let a lender approve a condo mortgage without a full interrogation of the association's budget, reserves, litigation and insurance. Removing it means more Miami buildings face a full review, and buildings carrying deferred reserve funding or open structural assessments are the ones most likely to fail it. The stated intent is a more transparent and financially secure lending environment. Fair enough. In Florida, where SB-4D reserve obligations already sit on older oceanfront stock, the near-term effect we expect is a shorter list of eligible buildings for the financed buyer. That expectation is our reading, not a published forecast, and the MIAMI REALTORS comment above refers to the FHA gap rather than to this rule change.

Now set that against how Miami actually pays. Cash was 38.1% of all Miami closings in June, 48.5% of existing condo sales, and in 2025, 82% of Miami condo sales above $1 million were all cash.

Two consequences follow and they point in opposite directions. A cash buyer at the top is barely touched by any of this, which is part of why the $5 million and above tier on the Beaches kept accelerating through a quarter when the median fell. A financed buyer in the entry tier, the same tier whose renewed activity pulled the median down, is about to find that the building matters as much as the apartment. If you are financing, the association's reserve study and insurance position are underwriting criteria now, not paperwork. Our Miami and New York financing guide covers the lender side, and the Miami luxury condo buying guide covers what to demand from a building before you sign.

Rates are not helping the financed end either. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 6.58% and the 15-year at 5.96% for the week ending July 23, 2026. The June county release cited 6.49%, so the two figures in this report are the same series a month apart, moving the wrong way for exactly the buyers the August rule change also lands on.

What a Million Dollars Buys, City by City

Context that gets lost in a quarter-to-quarter reading. The 2026 Knight Frank Wealth Report measures how much prime property a million dollars purchases in each global city. Miami still buys more space than any comparable trophy market, and it is not close to the European ones.

Source: 2026 Knight Frank Wealth Report. For a buyer weighing the two markets we work in, this comparison has nothing to do with any single quarter and it survives every quarter. The full cross-market picture sits in our Manhattan condo market report and the New York versus Miami closing cost breakdown.

What This Means If You Are Buying

Conditions still favor a patient buyer, and by less than they did last year. Condos took a median 85 days from listing to contract in June, up from 68 a year ago, and 124 days to close, up from 107. Sellers accepted 94% of original list price. Those are negotiable conditions. Against them sit five straight months of falling inventory. That is the counterweight.

Underwrite the building before the apartment. That advice is not new. August 3 makes it financial rather than philosophical. Ask for the reserve study, the insurance renewal, the assessment history and any SB-4D milestone inspection findings, and ask before you are attached to a floor plan. In branded and newer product the answers are usually clean, which is part of what the premium buys. That inventory is covered in our Miami branded residences guide and the Miami pre-construction pipeline.

Choose the submarket for the behavior you want rather than the postcode. The Beaches are supply-constrained and the top is running. The mainland has more product and softer averages. At the top of the market the ultra-luxury condo inventory and the trophy estates run on their own curve. If you are choosing between neighborhoods, start with the Miami neighborhood guide, or go straight to current Miami luxury condo listings and Miami Beach inventory.

If you are buying from outside the United States, and roughly half of new South Florida construction sales are international, the ownership structure decision belongs at the front of the process rather than at closing. The international buyers guide and the US estate tax guide for foreign buyers cover what that costs to get wrong.

What This Means If You Are Selling

Price to the composition rather than the headline. A seller reading a 3.15% median decline and marking down accordingly is applying a countywide mix statistic to one specific apartment. If your unit is newer, well-capitalized, or in a supply-constrained pocket on the Beaches, the relevant figures are the 6% rise in the Beaches average and the near-30% rise in sales above $5 million. If it is older mid-tier stock carrying an assessment, the counterargument section above is about you, and the median may be flattering rather than harsh.

Expect the buyer to interrogate the building, because from August a financed buyer's lender will do it whether the buyer does or not. Get the association documents, reserve position and insurance in order before listing. The deal that falls apart in week six over a reserve schedule is the expensive one, and with days on market already running longer, a re-listing costs real time.

Two things the median hides. Condo dollar volume rose 31.48% year over year in June to $940 million, so materially more money is moving than a year ago. And distressed sales were 0.5% of all Miami closings, against 70% in 2009. This is not a market under duress. It is a market where the buyer pool has become selective and the financing rules are tightening around one half of it. For the arithmetic on your own position, the net proceeds calculator and a confidential valuation are the place to start.